Spring 1903 - Potential Stabs & Grabs, From West to East

By Allan "Scoops" Rothberg

And what a busy world it has been!

France is in a position to put extreme pressure on Italy, especially if they can combine their efforts with Austria-Hungary. Considering the on again off again war over Trieste, this is not a remote possibility. Germany is still tough to put one over on, especially with 3 armies right on the French border, but England, despite it's somewhat weakened position, still remains a palpable threat to the Germans. Speaking of England, with only 1 Fleet to the north, there is not much France can do to England, even should these two neighbors decide to go north.

England suffered from some command paralysis, but with new leadership at the helm things could very well turn around in a hurry for John Bull. The one thorny in Englands side is the now massively expanded German navy. If the Germans and Russians can come to an "understanding" in the Baltic, England will need help from another power, and fast. On the other hand, England could serve any of its neighbors as a key ally.

Germany has benefited from a Russia heading north and south, a France heading west, Austria-Hungary rampant in the Balkans, and an England in a rebuilding phase. The power vacuum left in the Benelux area and Denmark drew in the very pleased German armed forces. Now with an army larger than France and a navy as large as the English, the Germans sit in a very powerful position. Unfortunately, such power usually draws envious stares and furtive behind the scenes negotiations from other players. What's more, the other burgeoning super-power, Austria-Hungary, has troops a short march from the German frontier. It is only with the great white horde to the east that the Germans have no immediate threats or opportunities.

Italy has managed to establish colonies to the south and east with relative ease. (I will only mention in passing the temporary annexation (liberation, if you are Italian) of Trieste. But, as well as Italy has done for the start of hostilities, Italy's two closest neighbors have done better. From wide open spaces, Italy now faces 2 French fleets and a French Army to the west, and 3 Austria-Hungarian armies to the east. The fleet in the Eastern-Med is obviously out on a limb, but can support attacks against some very key positions. Players with nations in that part of the world should also read up on Lepanto. Good relations are crucial if Italy wants to stay a major player, much less to continue to expand and grow. The alternative solution is to ally with your neighbors's neighbor. Of course "distractions" to your neighbors other fronts can appear without the slightest involvement from Italy. Italy's watchword for the immediate future should be "opportunistic".

Austria-Hungary now stands in possesion of half the Balkans, with a hefty army, albeit all committed to one front. Again, a relatively quiescent Russian neighbor has allowed AH to leave an entire front thinly covered. While the fleet in the Aegean seems weak, it is well poised to support potential allies from 3 countries, and not just as the anvil to an AH army hammer. As with Germany, too much success, too soon, has its own cost. And just where is that army in Tyrolia heading? Surely Germany and Italy have to be asking themselves that very question.

Turkey has gotten the shortest end of the shortest stick. The Russians and Austria-Hungarians have made no bones about their intentions in Asia Minor, and Turkey does not seem to be included in those plans. Now the Italian navy shows up. Is it friend or foe? Next turn should reveal that quite plainly. If not Italy, Turkey desperately needs for some outside power to distract any of the European invaders, that or for Russian and Austria-Hungary to fall on each other. One sure fire method for the later to occur is to throw your country to one invading player. It's a big risk as you may just be hastening your own demise, but nothing breaks up an alliance faster than one of the allies getting the lion's share of the spoils while the other gets bupkiss.

Russia. Russia, Russia, Russia. Russia can become involved everywhere, tipping power balances over in a second. Russia can also become involved everywhere, but not of its own choice. Here the Russians have a primary front to the south, secondary fronts in the Balkans and Scandanavia, and no front to the west. Except for the French-German border and in the waters of the Mediterranean proper, the shape of this game has largely been because of where Russia has committed its stenght, and how much, and where Russia has chosen to ignore. (Don't believe me? consider what the entire map would look like if Russia drove into Germany and not in the Balkans.) So, while no juggernaut, as goes Russia, so goes the war.

Overall, there is no single dominant player or alliance. The corner countries are on the wane, but hardly out of the game yet.